And there will be over 6,000 profit-making
To get a Flavor of How to Bet and
Beat Baseball Please Read the Following
Baseball has historically been our favorite sport to handicap. The daily action.
The 2, 3 and 4 game series with the same opponent. The relatively stable starting
lineups. The huge difference in starting pitching. The value of the bullpen. The
biases of the Umpires. The uniqueness of the ballparks - and the teams taylor-made
to play in them. All of these factors, plus others, combine to make baseball a very
beatable betting proposition. And unlike basketball and football, all you do is pick
the winner of the game on the field!
Sure. There are vagaries and nuances that must be considered. Picking winners
is one thing. Making a profit from picking winners is another.
our years of experience and expertise come in.
At Logical Approach we have been handicapping major league baseball for over
30 years with a solid record of success. Although the game itself has remained essentially
the same over this period, the methodology of handicapping and analyzing the game
has changed dramatically. As with all sports, baseball is very streaky. But it is
also perhaps the most formful of all sports, largely due to the long season that
makes certain the best teams play the best baseball. Statistics are most meaningful
in baseball, be they player, team or generic. Our years of experience have shown
us how to identify and profit from form cycles, rookie pitchers, biased umpires and
the like. Most importantly of all, we know how to profit from betting on baseball.
Baseball uses the Money Line, which differs significantly from the pointspread
that is used in basketball and football. In baseball you wager according to set odds,
based upon the likelihood one teams has in defeating another. For example, the Yankees
may be the best team in baseball. Kansas City might be amongst the worst. To back
the Yankees to beat the Royals you have to lay odds to a dollar, for example 3-1.
This means that in order for you to win a bet on the Yankees to beat the Royals,
by any score, you would risk $300 to win $100. If you thought the Royals would pull
the upset you would risk $100 to win $240. That difference of $60, between what the
Favorite player lays and the Underdog bettor takes, is the linesmaker's edge.
Most baseball games are more competitive than our example. Thus if the Astros
were hosting the Cardinals the Astros might be favored by about -140, meaning you'd
bet $140 to win $100 if you wanted to back the Astros. Since baseball uses a ten
cents line in many places (which is very advantageous to the bettor) you would risk
$100 on the Cardinals to win $130 if they were to win the game.
The major variables that determine the price on a game are the relative differences
between the two teams, the differences in the quality of the opposing starting pitchers,
and the home field advantage (which is even more significant in Run Line wagering
which we shall discuss shortly).
Showing a profit is not as easy it you might think. Winning percentage is not
the key to profits. Keep in mind the critical concept that it's the prices
of your winners and losers. You can hit 60% winners and show a loss (by playing mostly
favorites) or you can hit 40% winners and show a profit (by playing on underdogs).
There will be over 2,400 major league baseball games played this regular season
and several dozen more in the Playoffs. In addition to wagering on which team you
think will win the game, you can also wager on whether the total runs scored in the
game will be less than or greater than a specified number. Generally the total runs
number is 8 to 8 ½ in the National League and 9 to 9 ½ in the American League, although
there are significant variations due most often to the specifics of certain ballparks
(i.e. Fenway Park, Wrigley Field and Coors Field in Colorado usually have totals
posted that are often somewhat above the norm. Generally a 20 cents line is used
in Totals, or Over/Under. Wagers so that a game might be listed as Over 8 ½ runs and
-130 with the corresponding Under 8 ½ runs being +110. Here again there will be more
than 2,000 wagering opportunities this season. Additionally, wagering on the first
5 innings of baseball games -- sides and totals -- has gained in popularity in recent
There is also Run Line wagering which is similar in concept to a pointspread
and, in effect, combines the concepts of a Pointspread and a Money Line. Generally,
a Run Line of plus or minus 1 ½ runs is used. In this type of wager the favorite lays
1 ½ runs while the underdog takes 1 ½ runs and the Money Line price on the game is
adjusted from the straight 'winner of the game' line. For example, in our earlier
illustration the Astros were -140 to defeat the Cardinals. Using the Run line concept,
the Astros might be +155 to win the game by at least 2 runs (i.e. - 1 ½) and the Cardinals
might be -175 to either win the game or lose by exactly 1 run (i.e. + 1 ½). Usually
a 20 cents line, or 20 cents spread, is used in Run Lines.
Run lines can be used effectively to lower the price you must lay on a favorite
to win a game by giving up that 1 run win and can also be used to change a favorite
into an underdog (as in our Astros example) by merely requiring the favorite to win
by 2 or more runs. We have the math and the historical data to show how Run Line
wagering can be extremely profitable.
Although Parlay wagers are often considered taboo when it comes to football and
basketball, they can be utilized extremely effectively in baseball, especially when
playing favorites. Consider two favorites each of whom is -150. A line of -150 equate
to the mathematical fraction of 3/2 which translates into a chance of success of
60%. That is, a team that is -150 is given a 60% chance of winning by the linesmaker.
In baseball Parlays pay off at true odds. That is, if you Parlay to even money teams
together (+ 100) a $100 wager would return $400, for a profit of $300. Those are
true odds for two even money bets. If you were to parlay two teams each of whom is
-150, the return on a $100 wager would be $277, for a profit of $177.
Do you see what is happening here? We are taking two 60% favorites, tying them
together, and when they win we are getting paid as if we had bet a single +177 underdog.
More dramatic yet is the case of a pair of 2 to 1 favorites, teams on which you
would have to bet $200 individually to win $100 individually. A 2-1 favorite (i.e.
-200) has a 67% chance of winning (they should win two of three games). Put those
two -200 favorites together in a Parlay and your $100 wager returns $225 for a profit
of $125! Two substantial favorites combine into a +125 Underdog! Yes, Parlays can
very powerful tools!
We've done a tremendous amount of work this past off-season getting ready for
2013 -- testing new theories and validating ones that have historically proven profitable.
The dynamics of modern day baseball combined with current pricemaking and wagering
practices afford us a great opportunity for profit in baseball investments.
Now, here are more reasons why baseball can be beaten.
at the structure of the baseball season and how it unfolds.
APRIL -- This month offers perhaps the best time of the season to cash
in on Underdogs. Teams that will often be favored by -140 in July are often priced
as +140 Underdogs in April. Here's where our offseason work and Spring Training analysis
of how each team has changed and whether or not the players who remain are on the
decline or ready to improve really pays off. Early season lines are generally based
on perceptions from the prior season. Yet each season there are a handful of teams
that will be dramatically different from the season before -- both winning teams
and losing teams. The public will be slow to catch on to these changes so in April
we can find many bargains by playing on undervalued Underdogs and by playing against
MAY -- As the season enters its second month the
linesmaker has started to catch up with the teams that are extremely hot or cold
out of the gate. But not all of those teams will continue in what seems to
be a dramatic direction. Here, once again, our work during the off-season and Spring
Training pays huge dividends by enabling us to determine which teams are truly vastly
improved or worsented versus which teams are just off to hot or cold starts
and are likely to reverse direction and perform more according to expectations. This
'lag time' between the start of the season and the time when many teams truly establish
their identity for the current season allows us to take advantage of streaks
and often finds us backing certain small favorites and certain small underdogs.
through AUGUST -- This is the most formful part of the season. All teams are
still contending for the Playoffs or, if they have struggled in the first two months,
still have plenty of time to go on a run and get back into the race. It is during
this part of the season that the Parlay technique discussed above is most effective.
By June we have pretty much been able to determine which of the early surprise teams
are 'for real' and which have started to fade. Injuries have also begun to take a
toll and a team's depth or lack thereof comes strongly into play. The nature of the
injuries, be they to everyday players, starting pitchers or members of the bullpen,
dictate the effect on Over/Under plays as well.
SEPTEMBER -- This is
the time to exercise great caution, especially since many teams are out of contention
and are just playing out the string, bringing up untested minor leaguers when the
roster expands from 25 to 40 on September 1. The contending teams are usually priced
as prohibitive favorites, making them difficult to back even in Parlays. Many of
the best plays in September are found in games between non-contenders which tend
to be more competitively priced. There are also situations involving up and coming
starting pitchers, even against the contenders, that often provide nice payouts on
huge underdogs that while out of contention will play hard for their young 'phenom'
who takes the hill and requires confidence from a team supporting him with their
best efforts despite not heading for post-season play. Of course, competitively priced
games between contending teams also gives us opportunities to pick out solid situations
for both Side and Total plays.
PLAYOFFS and WORLD SERIES -- The best
part of the baseball season is when everything is on the line. There are few bargains
in the Playoffs and World Series since the entire world knows almost everything about
the competing teams. But there are tried and true patterns and situations that develop
which, combined with current form and quality of the pitching matchup, can lead to
profitable post-season play on both a game to game basis and in making futures plays
using the revised odds that are posted before each round of post-season play begins.
We invite you to join us for the
We are now accepting full season subscriptions with a Discount
available for signing up on or before Saturday, April 15
Each day throughout the season we handicap each and every game on the schedule,
RECOMMENDING ONLY what we consider the best opportunities for profit that day.
Daily Recommendations may include the following --
A) Sides (generally underdogs
or small-to-modest favorites of -140 or less) B) Full game or First 5 Inning Over/Unders C)
Parlays and/or Run Line plays involving large favorites depending on what the handicapped
matchups and prices dictate.
During the course of a weekly period we expect
to have roughly 8-12 Selections, or between 1 and 3 per day. On some days we will
pass if attractive opportunities do not exist. We look to average a profit of between
1 and 1 1/2 units per week -- a reasonable, realistic and attainable goal.
Historically we tend to get out of the gate fast so consider signing up NOW.
Our prices are amongst the most affordable in the industry and you get personal consultation
on an as-needed basis as well. For details and prices, see the enclosed Order Form.
Any questions? Please email us at firstname.lastname@example.org and we will generally reply to
your email within 24 hours.
SPECIAL BONUS !!! ==========
All full season subscribers will receive our Over/Under Season Win Total
Recommendations for ALL 30 MLB TEAMS!
(Expected to be Available Friday/Saturday
We have had great success in making
these plays over the past 15+ seasons. Each team is evaluated and rated as a Full
Recommendation, Strong Opinion, or a Lean as to whether we expect that team to exceed
or fall short of its expected win total.
The beauty of this season-long investment
is that it provides the ONLY WAY to play AGAINST a team you think will have a worse
season than expected.
At the same time Season Win Totals are the ONLY WAY
to play ON a team you think will have a successful season but without having to make
a play on that team to win a Division, a Pennant or the World Series!