Logical Approach's 2018 NFL Power Ratings


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2018 NFL Linear Regression Power Ratings

Current 2018 Overall Ratings --- Updated Through Sunday, January 20, 2019

Through NFL Week # 20 (Conference Championship)

Based on Game Results & Opponents Played

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New Orleans109.691.64110.51108.87
2Kansas City109.07-0.53108.81109.34
3L A Rams108.723.63110.53106.90
4New England106.521.63107.33105.70
5Baltimore106.473.72108.33104.61
6Chicago106.114.14108.18104.04
7L A Chargers105.571.70106.42104.72
8Pittsburgh105.473.86107.40103.54
9Seattle104.215.10106.76101.66
10Indianapolis103.503.74105.37101.63
11Houston103.173.33104.83101.50
12Philadelphia102.130.45102.35101.90
13Dallas101.332.65102.66100.01
14Carolina100.821.93101.7999.86
15Minnesota100.704.13102.7798.64
16Tennessee100.271.91101.2299.31
17Atlanta99.803.36101.4898.12
18Cleveland99.471.10100.0298.92
19Denver99.35-1.9198.40100.31
20N Y Giants97.83-0.0797.7997.86
21Green Bay97.372.5098.6296.12
22Tampa Bay97.331.5198.0996.58
23Detroit97.113.8399.0395.20
24Cincinnati96.431.1997.0395.84
25Jacksonville96.083.3797.7694.39
26Washington95.070.0295.0895.06
27San Francisco94.435.6297.2491.62
28Buffalo93.232.4994.4891.99
29N Y Jets92.331.3192.9991.68
30Miami91.341.1091.8990.79
31Oakland90.59-3.3888.9092.28
32Arizona88.472.6489.7987.15
NFL Average100.002.12101.0698.94

2018 NFL Average Line Played Against Power Ratings

Current 2018 Ratings --- Updated Through Sunday, January 20, 2019

Through NFL Week # 20 (Conference Championships)

Based on ALPA -- Average Line Played Against

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1L A Rams107.653.63109.46105.83
2New Orleans106.371.64107.19105.55
3New England106.261.63107.08105.45
4Kansas City105.15-0.53104.89105.42
5L A Chargers103.991.70104.84103.14
6Pittsburgh103.673.86105.60101.74
7Baltimore103.073.72104.93101.21
8Minnesota102.714.13104.77100.64
9Chicago102.474.14104.54100.40
10Green Bay102.082.50103.33100.83
11Houston101.693.33103.35100.02
12Atlanta101.473.36103.1599.79
13Philadelphia101.410.45101.64101.19
14Seattle100.705.10103.2598.15
15Carolina100.201.93101.1799.24
16Jacksonville99.763.37101.4498.07
17Indianapolis99.573.74101.4497.70
18Dallas99.262.65100.5897.93
19Denver99.20-1.9198.25100.16
20Tennessee98.991.9199.9598.04
21Cleveland98.001.1098.5597.45
22N Y Giants97.55-0.0797.5197.58
23Tampa Bay97.491.5198.2496.73
24Detroit97.473.8399.3895.55
25Cincinnati97.411.1998.0196.82
26San Francisco96.785.6299.5993.97
27Washington96.560.0296.5796.55
28N Y Jets95.221.3195.8794.56
29Miami95.201.1095.7594.65
30Oakland94.92-3.3893.2396.61
31Arizona93.892.6495.2192.57
32Buffalo93.822.4995.0792.58
NFL Average100.002.12101.0698.94


2018 NFL Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings

Current 2018 Ratings --- Updated Through Sunday, January 20, 2019

Through NFL Week # 20 Conference Championships)

Based on ARVL -- Average Result Vs Line

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1Indianapolis103.933.74105.80102.06
2Kansas City103.92-0.53103.66104.19
3Chicago103.644.14105.71101.57
4Seattle103.515.10106.06100.96
5Baltimore103.403.72105.26101.54
6New Orleans103.321.64104.14102.50
7Dallas102.082.65103.40100.75
8Pittsburgh101.803.86103.7399.87
9L A Chargers101.571.70102.42100.72
10Houston101.483.33103.1499.81
11Cleveland101.471.10102.02100.92
12Tennessee101.281.91102.23100.32
13L A Rams101.073.63102.8999.26
14Philadelphia100.710.45100.94100.49
15Carolina100.621.93101.5899.65
16N Y Giants100.28-0.07100.25100.32
17New England100.261.63101.0799.44
18Denver100.15-1.9199.20101.11
19Tampa Bay99.851.51100.6099.09
20Detroit99.643.83101.5697.73
21Buffalo99.412.49100.6698.17
22Cincinnati99.021.1999.6298.43
23Washington98.510.0298.5298.50
24Atlanta98.323.36100.0096.64
25Minnesota97.994.13100.0695.93
26San Francisco97.655.62100.4694.84
27N Y Jets97.111.3197.7796.46
28Jacksonville96.323.3798.0094.63
29Miami96.151.1096.7095.60
30Oakland95.68-3.3893.9997.37
31Green Bay95.292.5096.5494.04
32Arizona94.572.6495.8993.25
NFL Average100.002.12101.0698.94




The above Linear Regression Power Ratings are based upon a Linear Regression analysis of points scored and allowed (i.e. Margin of Victories and Defeats). Simply explained, the above Ratings reflect differences based upon the following: "If Team A beats Team B by 7, and Team C beats Team D by 13, and Team C beats Team A by 2, etc., how much better is Team A than Team D?" Thus the above Ratings attempt to compare all teams based upon who beats who and by how much. The Ratings tend to be more accurate as the season progresses.


The Average Line Played Against Power Ratings use a similar concept but are based on the lines used by the linesmakers in all of a team's games. The more that a team is favored, the higher its Rating. These Ratings are a good tool in evaluating and assessing how the linesmaker views each team and can be used as a guide in makeing lines on upcoming games based upon the lines that have been madein prior games.



The Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings also use the concept described above but do so from the perspective of how a teams has performed relative to the pointspread. For example, a team that is favored by 7 points and wins be 10 points has exceeded the line by 3 points while their opponent has fallen short by 3 points. Similarly a 4 point underdog that wins the game straight up by 10 points has exceeded the line by 14 points and their opponent has fallen short by 14. These Ratings can used a measurement of overachievement and underachievement by each team.

Each team's raw Rating is adjusted for their individual Home Field Advantage (HFA) by adding one-half of the HFA to their raw rating to determine their Home Rating and subtracting one-half of the HFA from their raw Rating to determine their Road Rating.


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