Logical Approach's 2019 NFL Power Ratings


2018 NFL Linear Regression Power Ratings

Current 2018 Overall Ratings --- Updated Through Monday, October 14, 2019

Through NFL Week # 6

Based on Game Results & Opponents Played

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1San Francisco116.854.49119.09114.60
2New England114.222.23115.33113.10
3Minnesota108.553.84110.47106.63
4Carolina107.851.64108.67107.03
5Green Bay106.304.64108.62103.98
6Houston106.172.00107.17105.17
7Kansas City105.980.37106.16105.79
8L A Rams105.091.92106.05104.13
9New Orleans103.862.18104.95102.77
10Tampa Bay103.841.67104.68103.01
11Chicago103.514.19105.60101.41
12Pittsburgh102.723.27104.35101.08
13Seattle102.263.29103.91100.62
14Buffalo102.072.02103.08101.06
15Jacksonville101.853.14103.42100.28
16Denver101.372.20102.47100.27
17Baltimore101.144.71103.4998.78
18Detroit100.522.74101.8999.15
19Tennessee99.862.55101.1398.58
20Oakland99.601.01100.1099.09
21Philadelphia98.922.1499.9997.85
22Indianapolis98.591.9499.5697.62
23Dallas97.95-0.4697.7298.18
24L A Chargers97.100.9597.5796.62
25Cleveland96.870.9697.3596.39
26N Y Giants93.562.1294.6292.50
27Arizona93.320.3893.5193.13
28Cincinnati92.731.3593.4092.05
29Atlanta92.401.7193.2691.55
30N Y Jets90.012.2391.1288.89
31Washington83.73-0.0383.7283.75
32Miami71.232.2872.3770.09
NFL Average100.002.18101.0998.91

2018 NFL Average Line Played Against Power Ratings

Current 2018 Ratings --- Updated Through Monday, October 14, 2019

Through NFL Week # 6

Based on ALPA -- Average Line Played Against

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New England109.642.23110.75108.52
2Kansas City105.800.37105.99105.62
3Dallas104.56-0.46104.33104.79
4Green Bay104.024.64106.34101.70
5L A Chargers103.960.95104.43103.48
6Baltimore103.894.71106.25101.54
7Minnesota103.293.84105.21101.37
8L A Rams103.061.92104.02102.10
9Philadelphia102.972.14104.04101.90
10Chicago102.904.19105.00100.81
11Seattle101.963.29103.61100.32
12Houston101.942.00102.94100.94
13New Orleans100.932.18102.0299.84
14San Francisco100.714.49102.9698.47
15Pittsburgh100.483.27102.1298.85
16Detroit100.122.74101.4998.75
17Cleveland99.720.96100.2099.24
18Carolina99.501.64100.3298.68
19Atlanta99.461.71100.3198.60
20Denver99.262.20100.3698.16
21Tennessee98.512.5599.7897.23
22Jacksonville98.493.14100.0696.92
23Indianapolis98.181.9499.1597.21
24Tampa Bay97.571.6798.4096.73
25Buffalo97.452.0298.4696.44
26Arizona95.860.3896.0595.67
27Cincinnati95.731.3596.4095.05
28N Y Giants95.712.1296.7794.65
29Oakland95.691.0196.1995.18
30Washington95.25-0.0395.2495.27
31N Y Jets93.662.2394.7892.55
32Miami89.762.2890.9088.62
NFL Average100.002.18101.0998.91


2018 NFL Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings

Current 2018 Ratings --- Updated Through Monday, October 14, 2019

Through NFL Week # 6

Based on ARVL -- Average Result Vs Line

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1San Francisco116.144.49118.38113.89
2Carolina108.351.64109.17107.53
3Tampa Bay106.281.67107.11105.44
4Minnesota105.263.84107.18103.34
5Buffalo104.622.02105.63103.61
6New England104.582.23105.70103.47
7Houston104.232.00105.23103.23
8Oakland103.911.01104.42103.41
9Jacksonville103.363.14104.93101.79
10New Orleans102.932.18104.02101.84
11Green Bay102.294.64104.6199.97
12Pittsburgh102.243.27103.87100.60
13Denver102.112.20103.21101.01
14L A Rams102.021.92102.98101.06
15Tennessee101.352.55102.62100.07
16Chicago100.614.19102.7098.51
17Indianapolis100.401.94101.3799.43
18Detroit100.402.74101.7799.03
Seattle100.303.29101.9598.66
20Kansas City100.180.37100.3699.99
21N Y Giants97.852.1298.9196.79
22Arizona97.460.3897.6597.27
23Baltimore97.254.7199.6094.89
24Cleveland97.150.9697.6396.67
25Cincinnati97.001.3597.6896.33
26N Y Jets96.342.2397.4695.23
27Philadelphia95.952.1497.0294.88
28Dallas93.39-0.4693.1693.62
29L A Chargers93.140.9593.6292.67
30Atlanta92.941.7193.8092.09
31Washington88.48-0.0388.4688.49
32Miami81.472.2882.6180.33
NFL Average100.002.18101.0998.91




The above Linear Regression Power Ratings are based upon a Linear Regression analysis of points scored and allowed (i.e. Margin of Victories and Defeats). Simply explained, the above Ratings reflect differences based upon the following: "If Team A beats Team B by 7, and Team C beats Team D by 13, and Team C beats Team A by 2, etc., how much better is Team A than Team D?" Thus the above Ratings attempt to compare all teams based upon who beats who and by how much. The Ratings tend to be more accurate as the season progresses.


The Average Line Played Against Power Ratings use a similar concept but are based on the lines used by the linesmakers in all of a team's games. The more that a team is favored, the higher its Rating. These Ratings are a good tool in evaluating and assessing how the linesmaker views each team and can be used as a guide in makeing lines on upcoming games based upon the lines that have been madein prior games.



The Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings also use the concept described above but do so from the perspective of how a teams has performed relative to the pointspread. For example, a team that is favored by 7 points and wins be 10 points has exceeded the line by 3 points while their opponent has fallen short by 3 points. Similarly a 4 point underdog that wins the game straight up by 10 points has exceeded the line by 14 points and their opponent has fallen short by 14. These Ratings can used a measurement of overachievement and underachievement by each team.

Each team's raw Rating is adjusted for their individual Home Field Advantage (HFA) by adding one-half of the HFA to their raw rating to determine their Home Rating and subtracting one-half of the HFA from their raw Rating to determine their Road Rating.


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