Logical Approach's 2019 NFL Power Ratings


2019 NFL Linear Regression Power Ratings

Current 2019 Overall Ratings --- Updated Through Sunday, January 12, 2020

Through NFL Week # 19 -- NFL Divisional Playoffs

Based on Game Results & Opponents Played

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1Baltimore113.884.71116.24111.53
2San Francisco111.484.49113.72109.23
3Kansas City110.010.37110.19109.82
4New England109.382.23110.49108.26
5New Orleans107.172.18108.26106.08
6Tennessee105.812.55107.09104.54
7Minnesota105.343.84107.26103.42
8Dallas105.02-0.46104.79105.25
9L A Rams103.801.92104.76102.84
10Green Bay103.574.64105.89101.25
11Seattle102.633.29104.27100.98
12Buffalo101.602.02102.61100.59
13Tampa Bay100.641.67101.4799.80
14Houston100.522.00101.5299.52
15Atlanta100.161.71101.0199.30
16Pittsburgh99.903.27101.5398.26
17Philadelphia99.732.14100.8098.66
18Chicago99.194.19101.2897.09
19L A Chargers99.070.9599.5598.60
20Indianapolis98.631.9499.6097.66
21Denver98.272.2099.3797.17
22Cleveland97.810.9698.2997.33
23Arizona96.660.3896.8596.47
24Detroit94.872.7496.2493.50
25Jacksonville93.783.1495.3592.21
26Oakland93.491.0194.0092.99
27Carolina93.241.6494.0692.42
28N Y Jets93.232.2394.3492.11
29Cincinnati92.261.3592.9491.59
30N Y Giants91.872.1292.9390.81
31Washington89.01-0.0388.9989.02
32Miami87.982.2889.1286.84
NFL Average100.002.18101.0998.91

2019 NFL Average Line Played Against Power Ratings

Current 2019 Ratings --- Updated Through Sunday, January 12, 2020

Through NFL Week # 19 -- NFL Divisional Playoffs

Based on ALPA -- Average Line Played Against

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New England107.612.23108.72106.49
2Kansas City105.650.37105.84105.47
3Baltimore105.164.71107.52102.81
4New Orleans104.882.18105.97103.79
5San Francisco104.524.49106.77102.28
6Dallas104.40-0.46104.17104.63
7Green Bay104.394.64106.71102.07
8L A Rams103.581.92104.54102.62
9Minnesota103.393.84105.31101.47
10Seattle102.843.29104.48101.19
11Chicago102.354.19104.45100.26
12Philadelphia101.882.14102.95100.81
13L A Chargers101.170.95101.65100.70
14Houston100.492.00101.4999.49
15Tennessee100.472.55101.7599.20
16Cleveland100.280.96100.7699.80
17Pittsburgh100.273.27101.9098.63
18Indianapolis99.641.94100.6198.67
19Tampa Bay99.331.67100.1698.49
20Buffalo98.922.0299.9397.91
21Atlanta98.691.7199.5497.83
22Carolina98.631.6499.4597.81
23Denver98.132.2099.2397.03
24Oakland97.441.0197.9596.94
25Jacksonville97.403.1498.9795.83
26Detroit96.682.7498.0595.31
27N Y Giants95.652.1296.7194.59
28Arizona95.590.3895.7895.40
29Cincinnati94.411.3595.0893.73
30N Y Jets93.932.2395.0592.82
31Washington92.94-0.0392.9392.96
32Miami89.262.2890.4088.12
NFL Average100.002.18101.0998.91


2019 NFL Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings

Current 2019 Ratings --- Updated Through Sunday, January 12, 2020

Through NFL Week # 19 -- NFL Divisional Playoffs

Based on ARVL -- Average Result Vs Line

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1Baltimore108.724.71111.08106.37
2San Francisco106.964.49109.20104.71
3Tennessee105.342.55106.61104.06
4Kansas City104.360.37104.54104.17
5Buffalo102.682.02103.69101.67
6New Orleans102.292.18103.38101.20
7Minnesota101.953.84103.87100.03
8New England101.772.23102.89100.66
9Atlanta101.471.71102.32100.61
10Tampa Bay101.311.67102.14100.47
11Arizona101.080.38101.27100.89
12Dallas100.62-0.46100.39100.85
13L A Rams100.221.92101.1899.26
14Denver100.142.20101.2499.04
15Houston100.032.00101.0399.03
16Seattle99.793.29101.4498.15
17Pittsburgh99.633.27101.2798.00
18N Y Jets99.302.23100.4198.18
19Green Bay99.184.64101.5096.86
20Indianapolis99.001.9499.9798.03
21Miami98.712.2899.8597.57
22Detroit98.192.7499.5696.82
23L A Chargers97.900.9598.3797.42
24Cincinnati97.861.3598.5397.18
25Philadelphia97.852.1498.9296.78
26Cleveland97.520.9698.0097.04
27Chicago96.834.1998.9394.74
28Jacksonville96.383.1497.9594.81
29N Y Giants96.222.1297.2895.16
30Washington96.07-0.0396.0596.08
31Oakland96.051.0196.5695.55
32Carolina94.601.6495.4293.78
NFL Average100.002.18101.0998.91




The above Linear Regression Power Ratings are based upon a Linear Regression analysis of points scored and allowed (i.e. Margin of Victories and Defeats). Simply explained, the above Ratings reflect differences based upon the following: "If Team A beats Team B by 7, and Team C beats Team D by 13, and Team C beats Team A by 2, etc., how much better is Team A than Team D?" Thus the above Ratings attempt to compare all teams based upon who beats who and by how much. The Ratings tend to be more accurate as the season progresses.


The Average Line Played Against Power Ratings use a similar concept but are based on the lines used by the linesmakers in all of a team's games. The more that a team is favored, the higher its Rating. These Ratings are a good tool in evaluating and assessing how the linesmaker views each team and can be used as a guide in makeing lines on upcoming games based upon the lines that have been madein prior games.



The Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings also use the concept described above but do so from the perspective of how a teams has performed relative to the pointspread. For example, a team that is favored by 7 points and wins be 10 points has exceeded the line by 3 points while their opponent has fallen short by 3 points. Similarly a 4 point underdog that wins the game straight up by 10 points has exceeded the line by 14 points and their opponent has fallen short by 14. These Ratings can used a measurement of overachievement and underachievement by each team.

Each team's raw Rating is adjusted for their individual Home Field Advantage (HFA) by adding one-half of the HFA to their raw rating to determine their Home Rating and subtracting one-half of the HFA from their raw Rating to determine their Road Rating.


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