Over the weeks leading up to the 2006 NFL Season we shall be reviewing each NFL team and making recommendations on whether or not that team is likely to achieve the level of wins posted at the Hilton Race & Sports book in Las Vegas, Nevada.

As we reach conclusions on each team we shall post them on this Web Page that is available only to subscribers to one or more of our weekly Football Newsletters and/or our Premium Selection Service.

.
TEAM             Wins     TEAM              Wins    TEAM              Wins 
--------------  ------    --------------  ------    --------------  ------
Arizona          8        Green Bay        6        Oakland          6 1/2
Atlanta          8        Houston          5 1/2    Philadelphia     8 1/2
Baltimore        8        Indianapolis    11 1/2    Pittsburgh      10    
Buffalo          6 1/2    Jacksonville     9        St Louis         7    
Carolina        10        Kansas City      9 1/2    San Diego        9    
Chicago          9        Miami            9        San Francisco    5    
Cincinnati       9        Minnesota        8        Seattle         10 1/2
Cleveland        6 1/2    New England     10 1/2    Tampa Bay        8    
Dallas           9 1/2    New Orleans      7        Tennessee        5 1/2
Denver          10        N Y Giants       9        Washington       9    
Detroit          7        N Y Jets         6 1/2                          

NOTES --

The Hilton uses a 20 cents line in setting a spread for the Overs and Unders, meaning that for a team on which the Over is priced at - 140 the Under is priced at + 120. Likewise a team on which the opinion is evenly divided the line would be - 110 on the Over and - 110 on the Under. As the 'favoritism' for an Over or Under increases the 20 cents spread may also increase. To view current Over/Under spreads you may view our Future Book charts by clicking here.

In approaching an analysis of playing individual teams to go Over or Under their respective win totals, several global perspectives need to be looked at first.

One key thing to keep in mind is that the public is usually geared to thinking in the positive -- i.e. that things will happen rather than that they won't. In other words, much as the public tends to prefer Favorites over Underdogs in betting the pointspread, and tends to prefer betting Over the Total Points as opposed to Under the Total Points in individual games, the Team Over/Under wins are geared more to betting the Over rather than the Under.

In fact, if you total up the number of wins in the above chart for all 32 NFL teams you will find that the sum is 262. However, barring any games that end in ties, there can only be 256 wins accumulated by the league as a whole, 256 being the total number of regular season games to be played. Thus there is an inherent bias towards the Over which means that on a global basis the value is in betting the Under.

Going even further, if one were to bet every team to go Over their total, because of the half wins for several of the teams it would take 288 wins overall to cash each ticket, or a league record for 256 games of 288-224, a spread of 64 games. If you were to bet every team OVER the total and those teams on even numbers landed on those numbers you are still looking at a total number of games of 268 to WIN or PUSH betting every team to go OVER their Tota, a variance of 12 games above the 256 being playedl (this would result in 12 wins and 20 pushes).

Obviously this is impossible but compare this scenario to betting Under for all teams in which case the total number of wins needed to cash every ticket drops to 236, or an overall record of 236-276, a spread of just 40 games. To WIN or PUSH every team going UNDER it Total would require a total of exactly 256 wins, a variance of 0 games above or below the total number of games to be played (this would result in 12 wins and 20 pushes).

Numerically the value clearly lies with the Under although we know that some of teams shall also exceed their number of wins. One way to get an overview of what the linesmaker expects is to recast the above table in the form of projected standings, division by division. By doing this exercise we get the following projections.

.
   AFC EAST                           NFC EAST                           
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   New England     10.5 -  5.5        Dallas           9.5 -  6.5        
   Miami            9.0 -  7.0        Washington       9.0 -  7.0        
   Buffalo          6.5 -  9.5        N Y Giants       9.0 -  7.0        
   N Y Jets         6.5 -  9.5        Philadelphia     8.5 -  7.5        


   AFC NORTH                          NFC NORTH                          
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Pittsburgh      10.0 -  6.0        Chicago          9.0 -  7.0        
   Cincinnati       9.0 -  7.0        Minnesota        8.0 -  8.0        
   Baltimore        8.0 -  8.0        Detroit          7.0 -  9.0        
   Cleveland        6.5 -  9.5        Green Bay        6.0 - 10.0        


   AFC SOUTH                          NFC SOUTH                          
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Indianapolis    11.5 -  4.5        Carolina        10.0 -  6.0        
   Jacksonville     9.0 -  7.0        Atlanta          8.0 -  8.0        
   Houston          5.5 - 10.5        Tampa Bay        8.0 -  8.0        
   Tennessee        5.5 - 10.5        New Orleans      7.0 -  9.0        


   AFC WEST                           NFC WEST                           
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Denver          10.0 -  6.0        Seattle         10.5 -  5.5        
   Kansas City      9.5 -  6.5        Arizona          8.0 -  8.0        
   San Diego        9.0 -  7.9        St Louis         7.0 -  9.0        
   Oakland          6.5 -  9.5        San Francisco    5.0 - 11.0        

By looking at the projected standings we can often spot teams that look out of place. Such teams are not necessarily those that are predicted to win divisions but rather may be teams projected to finish second or teams projected to finish last.

Note that with divisional realignment in 2002, there are now eight divisions, each with exactly four teams. This represents a dramatic change from the prior alignment which featured five divisions of five teams each and one division of six teams.

In general our approach is twofold -- to look for teams that figure to struggle and thus teams to be played Under the total, taking advantage of the built in bias towards the Under. But there is also a strategy geared towards finding teams that may be played Over the total. This strategy involves looking for teams that one expects will make the Playoffs and has a total wins listed of 9 games or less.

In most seasons it will take at least 10 wins to qualify for a Wild Card. In fact, since the NFL adopted its present Playoff format of six division winners and six Wild Cards in 1990 (for a total of 12 Playoff teams -- and modified since Realignment to 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Card teams but still producing 12 Playoff teams each season) there have been 192 teams to make the Playoffs in those 16 seasons. Of those 192 teams, 155 of them had at least 10 wins and another 31 teams had exactly 9 wins. Only 6 teams made the Playoffs with 8-8 records. Looked at another way, 80.7% of all Playoff teams won at least 10 games and 96.9% of all Playoff teams won at least 9 games. Only 3.1% of all Playoff teams over the past 16 seasons won just 8 games.

Thus in looking to play teams Over their posted wins total the best strategy is to look for team with a good chance of making the playoffs and whose win totals are 9 or less. Generally these teams will have win totals between 7 and 9. Remember that 9 wins for a Playoff team should at least get you a 'push' on the Over and you have a better than 4 in 5 chance of cashing your ticket should your team make the Playoffs since such teams wins at least 10 games better than 80% of the time.

In looking at teams you may expect to make the Playoffs use history as a guide. Since the NFL expanded to include 12 teams in the Playoffs in 1990 only an average of 6.4 teams make it to the Playoffs the following a Playoff appearance. That is, of the 12 Playoff teams from 2005 (Carolina, Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Washington) only 6 or 7 of them can be expected to again make the Playoffs in 2006. Only once, in 1995, did as many as 8 of 12 Playoff teams make the Playoffs again the following season and only in 2003 did as few as 4 teams repeat (in 1999 just 5 teams repeated from 1998). Thus, 6 or 7 teams from 2005 can be expected to make the Playoffs in 2006.

Focus your OVER plays on those teams, especially the 5 or 6 teams you think may make the Playoffs this season after having missed out last season. Because of this recent high degree of parity -- in which 19 of the NFL's 32 teams have made the Playoffs over the past 2 seasons -- the OVER becomes more of a value if you are able to identify those teams that did not make the Playoffs a year ago but may have been in the Playoffs two or three seasons ago and seem to be improved entering this season.

4 teams that did not make the Playoffs in either of the past 2 seasons (Baltimore, Dallas, Kansas City and Tennessee) did make the Playoffs 3 seasons ago. 9 teams (Arizona, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Miami, New Orleans, Oakland and San Francisco) have not made the Playoffs in any of the last 3 seasons.

It is easier to decide upon teams to play Under the total for several reasons, especially noting that there is built in value in playing the Under. Also, most developments during the season tend to be negative, generally in the form of extended or season-ending injuries. In looking for teams to play Under it is often a good strategy to look for teams that don't have much depth at several positions, especially at QB and other skill positions. A change in coaching can often lead to a slow start out of the gate.

Also let's look at the opposite of the statistics that define likely Playoff teams. Between 1990 and 2005 there have been 481 individual team seasons. 105 of those teams, or 21.8%, have won 5 or fewer games in a season. 68 of those 105 teams (14.1% of the overall 481 total) have won just 4 or fewer games.

In each season there were at least 2 teams that won 4 or fewer games and at least 4 teams that won 5 or less. Thus we can expect that 3 or 4 teams will win 4 or fewer games in 2006 and that another 2 or 3 teams will win exactly 5 games.

In the above chart we can see that only one team, San Francisco, is projected to win 5 games or less and that no team is projected to win 4 or fewer games. Another two teams, Houston and Tennessee, are projected to win fewer than 6 games with their Totals set at 5 1/2. The most likely prospects to win 5 or fewer games would generally be teams projected at 7 wins or less.

In 2005 there were 10 teams with 5 or fewer wins and 13 teams with 10 or more wins. Of the baker's dozen with 10 or more wins only Kansas City, at 10-6, failed to make the Playoffs, becoming only the fourth team since 1990 to win at least 10 games and not make the Playoffs (the previous 3 teams also won exactly 10 games).

Obviously 2002's realignment meant that a different type of analysis was needed to project how a team will do in total wins over the course of a season and what number of wins will be needed to make the Playoffs. It will be several seasons before even tentative conclusions may be drawn. Realignment has radically altered scheduling dynamics and how teams will qualify for the Playoffs. For example, in the past every team played at least half of their games against Division rivals. Now a team plays only six of their 16 games against Division foes so by definition Divisional games are not as important as they had been in the past.

Also, the Playoff field is now comprised of 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Cards instead of 6 and 6. Thus we might see teams in an average but competitive Divisions reach the Playoffs by winning a Division with a record of just 8-8. It will also be possible that a team could finish second in a division with a 10-6 record but not make the Playoffs. Remember, there are now FOUR second place teams in each conference, not just three. In the past it was possible for the top two finishers in each Division to make the Playoffs. Such will no longer be the case. In 2002, for example, the New York Jets made the Playoffs with just a 9-7 record by virtue of being the AFC East champions. However, no team with more than 9 wins missed the Playoffs in 2002. In 2003 only one 10 win team -- Miami -- failed to make the Playoffs and no team with 9 or fewer wins made the Playoffs. The same was true in 2005 when Kansas City's 10 wins did not get them into the Playoffs but also no team with 9 or fewer wins made the field either.

In looking at the following recommendations they are presented in the chronological order in which we have reviewed the teams. Unless otherwise indicated, all recommendations are weighted and rated equally at a single unit. In certain cases where the Over or Under we prefer is so highly priced that we cannot in good conscience recommend a straight play equal to one unit we will likely recommend the play at a half unit. Generally these will be teams where the side we prefer is priced at - 140 or higher.

Also, please note that there may be hedging opportunities late in the season if some of our recommendations will be decided in the final week or two.

Here, then, are our recommendations for the 2006 NFL season.

Our analysis begins with a look at those teams we clearly expect to make the Playoffs. There is not as much value this season in seeking out such teams as in recent seasons. In 2003 there were only two teams (Philadelphia and Tampa Bay) whose projected Total Wins were greater than 9 1/2. In 2004 there were 7 teams with projected wins of at least 10. For 2005 there were 5 teams with projected win totals of 10 or higher. And in 2006 there are 6 such teams.

As stated above, there is better than a 75% chance that a Playoff team will have won at least 10 games. Remember that history tells us that five or six teams that DID NOT make the Playoffs last season WILL make the Playoffs this season. And it is from the list of teams that did not make the Playoffs last season that will provide our first set of Recommendations and Opinions.

Philadelphia Eagles -- OVER 8 1/2 (- 120) -- Philly looks to rebound from a disappointing 6-10 2005 that has caused many 'experts' to label as the start of the decline of the franchise that had made it to 4 straight NFC Title games and 1 Super Bowl from 2001 to 2004. Fact is their season was pretty much doomed from training camp with the Terrell Owens mess and ultimate suspension and injuries during the season to QB Donovan McNabb and RB Brian Westbrook that caused the trio to miss much of the season. Coach Andy Reid has been excellent as a head coach and one need to look only to the progress he made in taking over a team that was 3-13 in 1998. After making modest improvement in his first season, 1999 (5-11) the Eagles improved to 11-5, the first of 5 straight double digit win seasons and Playoff appearances. McNabb is healthy and let's not forget that in reaching 3 of their 4 NFC Title games the Eagles did so without "TO." The Eagles were 0-6 in NFC East games last season after going 6-0 in 2004 and winning 21 of 24 games overall against current NFC East members from 2001 through 2004. Note also that in Coach Reid's first 6 seasons in Philly, the Eagles exceeded the posted Over/Under season Win Totals 5 times while Pushing once before falling short last season for the reasons cited above. It is expected that other 3 teams in the Division may be somewhat overrated and that Philly will not only finish above .500 but has an excellent chance at returning to their double digit win history. (Recommendation Date -- August 17, 2006)


Jacksonville Jaguars -- OVER 9 (Even) -- The Jags made the Playoffs in 2005 and did so with a 12-4 record. They were a fashionable longshot to fare well in 2005 and did not disappoint, in fact exceeding expectations rather nicely as their win total was just 8 1/2. Now we are given the opportunity for Jacksonville to basically do only what they were expected to do last season but for which they exceeded by 3 1/2 games. There clearly seems to be a huge dropoff to the third and fourth teams in the AFC South and the Jags were more than capable of battling with Indianapolis in their recent meetings. Coach Jack del Rio is a well prepared coach with a solid staff and although the Jags will be hard pressed to duplicate those 12 wins they are a team on the rise that should win at least 10 games and again make the Playoffs as a Wild Card. They have a solid backup QB and there 2005 season was highlighted by home wins over Playoff bound Seattle and Cincinnati and a road win at Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh. (Recommendation Date -- August 23, 2006)


Dallas Cowboys -- UNDER 9 1/2 (+ 110) -- The NFC East begins the season as the NFL's most balanced Division, a Division in which Dallas was 3-3 last season en route to a 9-7 overall record. The Cowboys were involved in many close games in 2005, winning 6 games by 4 points or less while losing 3 games by a FG or less. Arguably the 'Boys were not that far from being 12-4 nor were they far from being just 3-13, a rather wide variance. To their credit, their only blowout loss was a late season critical 35-7 thrashing at Washington, which ultimately enabled the Redskins to finish 10-6 and earn a Wild Card that the Cowboys might have earned with a win in that game -- or the earlier game in which the 'Boys blew a 13-0 fourth quarter lead on a Monday night in mid-September. The addition of WR Terrell Owens should be a positive if the off the field issues that ruined his (and Philadelphia's) 2005 season can be avoided. Dallas has a rough schedule, starting the season with 3 of their first 4 games on the road and overall will play half their games against Playoff teams from last season. The defense remains a work in progress and talent wise the Cowboys have more of an 8-8 look than they do that of a true Playoff contender. A repeat of 9-7 seems more likely than an improvement to 10 or more wins with that 8-8 record the most likely scenario. It appears more likely that Dallas will lose a Divisional game at home than they will win one on the road, meaning a 2-4 Divisional record is more likely than 4-2 and that could be the difference. (Recommendation Date -- August 25, 2006).


New York Jets -- UNDER 6 (- 125) -- This is clearly a rebuilding season for a team in transition as the Jets chart a new direction under a first year coach with no prior head coaching experience. Eric Mangini comes from New England where he learned under Bill Belichick but as many assistants have learned it's a huge leap from coordinator to head coach, especially when taking over a bad team. And the Jets are exactly that. RB Curtis Martin may have played his last game as the Jets now will break in recently acquired Kevan Barlow as heir apparant. The retirement of steady Wayne Chrebet depletes an already suspect receivers corps while the offseason trade of John Abraham hurts the pass rush on defense. And there are questions about the healthy of QB Chad Pennington who has been injury prone in his brief NFL career. After making the Playoffs in 3 of the prior 4 seasons under ex-coach Herman Edwards the Jets slipped to 4-12 in 2005. While the loss of Pennington was a significant factor, that still cannot fully explain why 8 of their 12 losses were by double digits, including 3 by 20 or more. There is just too much inexperience in too many areas, including the coach, to expect much, if any, improvement in the Jets' fortunes in 2006. A further step backwards could be in store even thoughjust 5 of their 16 games are against Playoff teams from last season. Most of the remainder are against teams that have made significant impovement during the offseason as compared to the losses suffered by the Jets. Best case scenario calls for 5 wins with the most likely case being a repeat of 2005's 4-12 mark. (Recommendation Date -- August 25, 2006).

Denver Broncos -- OVER 10 (- 125) -- With a stong home field, a stong defense and a consistently strong running game Denver is the team to beat in the AFC West. They were a solid 13-3 last season and appear just as strong this season with a solid backup QB in rookie Jay Cutler. Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak will be missed but the talent, depth and continuity that has marked Denver over the past several seasons suggests this will be another double digit win season with a repeat of last season's 13 victories quite possible. (Recommendation date -- September 9, 2006).


Seattle Seahawks -- OVER 10 1/2 (- 110)

Often, Strong Opinions differ from both Recommendations and Weak Opinions in the following way. In making a Recommendation both the Total Number of Wins and the +/- Price must be favorable, especially since there is a several month wait before the results are known. As such it may be impractical or uncomfortable in making a Recommendation on a team to go Over or Under a specified number -- even though the assigned probabilities may be great -- if to do so means laying a price say, in excess of minus 130. Thus a Strong Opinion may often be looked at a play that would have been looked at as a Recommended Play but for the 'vig' attached whereas a Weak Opinion is one that is classified as such more likely because the probabilites assigned to the Over/Under are such that the likelihood of a winning result is considerably less than that of a Recommendation.

Miami Dolphins -- OVER 9 (- 140) -- Miami won between 9 and 11 games for 7 straight seasons prior to the disaster that was 2004 when RB Ricky Williams abruptly retired just prior to training camp. In fact, the Dolphins won less than 9 games just once between 1992 and 2003 when they finished 8-8 in 1996. Clearly this is a franchise with a solid pedigree and sure enough, the Fish won their final 6 games in 2005 under new coach Nick Saban to return to their winning ways, finishing at 9-7. Improvement can be expected in a coach's second season at the helm and the improvement could be dramtic with the offseason acquisition for QB Daunte Culpepper from Minnesota, who seems to have fully healed from the injury that sidelined him much of 2005. The defense is always strong and the gap between Miami and New England in the AFC East has narrowed, with the Dolphins very capable of making a run at the Division title. The talent -- and coaching -- in place to win 11 or 12 games but even winning 10 gives us a win here for a team that should make the Playoffs. Only the high vig of -140 keeps this from being a Recommended Play. (Opinion Date -- August 23, 2006).


Cincinnati Bengals -- OVER 9 (+ 150) -- Initially there was thought that this coule be a down season for last year's AFC North champions, given the uncertain return to health of QB Carson Palmer, injured in their Playoff loss to Pittsburgh, and the potential for in-season distractions caused by numerous players having been involved in off season incidents that put them on police blotters across the country. But upon further reflection the Bengals are a very talented team that has shown in recent seasons a committment to fielding a winning team. Coach Marvin Lewis brought his defensive expertise to the Bengals and Cincy's aggressive style to lead the NFL in takeaways last season -- and by a wide margin. Palmer's performance in week 3's preseason game against Green Bay indicates he may be nearly fully recovered although backup Anthony Wright performed very well in earlier summer contests. Cincy has a solid running game, a trio of outstanding receivers and a defense that should continue to improve. After a pair of 8-8 seasons in his first two seasons as coach, Lewis led the Bengals to an 11-5 mark in 2005. Although further improvement on that record might be tough, it is more likely given the talent on hand that the Bengals win double digit games before they slide back to 8-8. The very attractive plus price -- understandable given the well documented off field issues and concern about Palmer's recovery and durability -- make this an attractive play. Those uncertainties are what, however, keeps this as a Strong Opinion rather than a full fledged Recommendation. (Opinion Date -- August 30, 2006).


Baltimore Ravens -- OVER 8 (- 165) -- A top notch defense and an major upgrade at QB portent a return to Playoff contention and perhaps double digit wins for the Ravens. The steep vig on the OVER is what keeps this from being a Recommendation. (Opinion Date -- September 9, 2006).


Kansas City Chiefs -- UNDER 9 1/2 (- 150) -- Problems with the offensive line and the placing of the running burden squarely on the shoulders of Larry Johnson may prove to be too much to overcome this season. New coach Herman Edwards is defensive minded but his clock management skills came under major criticism while with the Jets. The relatively high vig is what keeps this from being a full Recommendation. (Opinion Date -- September 9, 2006).


Atlanta Falcons -- OVER 8 (- 135) -- Atlanta has beefed up the defense with the acquisition of John Abraham and the offense should be more effective with QB Michael Vick becoming increasingly familiar with coach Jim Mora Jr's system. It will be the defensive improvement that has the Falcons in Playoff contention with that unit returning to the solid form of 2004 after a significant decline in 2005. (Opinion Date -- September 9, 2006).

Carolina Panthers -- OVER 10 (- 115)


Cleveland Browns -- UNDER 6 1/2 (- 130) -- Problems at the center position in training camp are a major cause for concern for a team that was weak offensively last season. The defense will be improved enough to keep the Browns in games but the lack of a high powered offense will keep the Browns from winning games in which they trail by just a few points in the fourth quarter. They will be much improved but it will not show up in the win/loss record as the rest of the Division is extremely strong. Watch out for Cleveland in 2007, however. (Opinion Date -- September 9, 2006).


Houston Texans -- UNDER 5 1/2 (+ 130)


New England Patriots -- UNDER 10 1/2 (- 110) -- The dynasty is starting to decay with personnel defections and holdouts, a sign that the great team chemistry that marked the Patriots' success over the first half of this decade may be starting to unravel. Several guys who provided leadership (Willie McGinnest) or clutch playmaking (Adam Vinatieri) are gone and there is a fine line between winning and losing in the NFL. Remember, during their "dynasty" the pats won 3 Super Bowls in 4 seasons -- but each by only a FG. (Opinion Date -- September 9, 2006).


New Orleans Saints -- UNDER 6 1/2 (- 150) -- Saints will struggle in a tough Division where their 3 foes all are improved and should contend for the Playoffs. The Saints have a new coach and a new QB, a combination that usually does not win right away. And the defense continues to be a problem. (Opinion Date -- September 9, 2006).


New York Giants -- OVER 9 (+ 120)


Oakland Raiders -- OVER 6 1/2 (+ 140)


Tennessee Titans -- UNDER 5 1/2 (- 140)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- OVER 8 (- 130)

Buffalo Bills -- UNDER 6 1/2 (-175) -- Buffalo figures to compete with the New York Jets for last place in the AFC East where a huge gap exists between these teams and front-runners New England and Miami. The Bills have a pair of rather ordinary quarterbacks with a limited corps of receivers. New coach Dick Jaruon is defensive minded and it will take some time for his system and schemes to be implemented and be effective. The lone bright spot for the Bills is RB Willis McGahee but his effectiveness will be questionable given these major concerns. And there are questions about depth at the RB position. Continuity has been a problem with this franchise as since long time successful coach Marv Levy left following the 1997 season, no coach has been given more than 3 seasons to rebuild the Bills -- Jauron is the fourth head coach in the past 9 seasons. Progress, if any, shall be slow in coming and the season figures to get off to a rough start with three straight games against Divisional foes, including opening the season at New England and Miami before hosting the Jets. The Bills might struggled to match last season's disappointing 5-11 season but its hard to see this team, given its overall level of talent and undergoing yet another season of transition, coming within one game of .500. But at the huge vig required to play the UNDER, this can be considered no more than a weak opinion at best. (Opinion Date -- August 30, 2006).


Arizona Cardinals -- OVER 8 (+ 110) -- The enthusiasm for the Cardinals to enjoy a winning season was much higher a few months ago and although little has changed to dampen that enthusiasm the fact remains that we are discussing one of the weakest franchises in all of pro sports over the past quarter century. Despite the arrival of a new stadium, the organization's committment to winning must still be proven, witness the lengthy contract negotiations to sign heralded rookie QB Matt Leinart. Still the talent is on hand to fashion a winning season and contend for the Playoffs. The Cards are clearly second to defending NFC Champion Seattle in the NFC West and coach Dennis Green had a great record while coaching Minnesota at taking his Vikings to the Playoffs. The defense also showed improvement last season and, in fact, Arizona was the ONLY team in the NFL to rank in the Top 10 in BOTH Total Offense (# 8) and Total Defense (# 8)!!! The acquisition of RB Edgerrin James will bolster their # 32 rushing attack and provide a better complement to what was the # 1 pass offense in 2005. Still, the Cardinals have had just ONE WINNING SEASON SINCE 1984!!! That's good enough reason to temper the enthusiasm. Were this almost any other organization this would be a solid Recommendation but we must respect history above potential before being willing to make a stronger case for the Cardinals. Our projection calls for a 9-7 record for the Cardinals. But these are the Cardinals. (Opinion Date -- August 30, 2006).


Pittsburgh Steelers -- UNDER 10 (- 110) -- The defending champs are still a solid team, especially on defense, but the rest of the AFC North is improved. The offense will miss the leadership of Jerome Bettis and the contributions of Antwan Randle-El, also gone from last season's team. The Steelers declined from 15-1 in 2004 to 11-5 in 2005 and, recall, did finish second to Cincinnati in the Division. Although 10-6 seems the most likely scenario for the Steelers, it is easier to see them declining to 9-7 much more easily than repeating their 11-5 mark of a year ago, given the schedule and the fact that Pittsburgh now carries the huge bullseye on their collective backs. (Opinion Date -- September 6, 2006).


Chicago Bears -- OVER 9 (- 210) -- Almost by default the Bears have to be conceded the NFC North Title with a defense that is the best unit in the Division -- by far. The offense will be improved but will still be conservative as there is no need to take chances with a defense as outstanding as Chicago's -- just wait for the opponent to make a mistake. The extremely high vig and the uncertainty of injuries keeps this as a weak opinion. (Opinion Date -- September 9, 2006).


Detroit Lions -- UNDER 7 (- 130) -- The suppsedly new offense installed by new coordinator and former Rams' head coach Mike Martz did not so much in pre season. It will take time for the system to be implemented and the personnel acquired to implement it effectively. In the meantime the defense is suspect and the offense has just rather ordinary talent with a pair of journeymen at QB in Jon Kitna and Josh McCown. Detroit will be fortunate to PUSH 7 wins this season which is our best case scenario. (Opinion Date -- September 9, 2006).


Green Bay Packers -- UNDER 6 (Even)


Indianapolis Colts -- OVER 11 1/2 (+ 120) -- Still favored to win the AFC the Colts are a solid all around team with an improving defense and potent offense. Still, injuries could derail the Colts which is why it is hazardous to suggest a team will be able to win 12 games. They do have four "gimmies" against Division foes Tennessee and Houston but even at the plus price there are risks in playing a team go OVER this high a number. (Opinion Date -- September 9, 2006).


Minnesota Vikings -- UNDER 8 (- 120)


San Diego Chargers -- UNDER 9 (Even)


San Francisco 49ers -- UNDER 5 (- 110)


St Louis Rams -- UNDER 7 (- 110)


Washington Redskins -- UNDER 9 (- 160)